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Airbnb & Short-Term Rental ROI Predictor

Model your property's real cash flow before you buy. Adjust the numbers on the left and your dashboard updates instantly.

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Understanding Your Airbnb ROI Numbers

A practical guide to how this calculator works, what the numbers mean, and how to use them before you buy.

Short-term rental math looks simple until you actually run it. A property that clears $4,000 in gross Airbnb revenue a month can still lose money once you account for the mortgage, cleaning turnover, platform fees, and the maintenance reserve most hosts forget to budget for. This calculator exists to close that gap. It takes the same inputs a lender or a seasoned host would ask about and turns them into a real monthly cash flow picture, before you make an offer.

It's built for buyers evaluating a specific listing, current hosts stress-testing their pricing, and agents who need to show clients the numbers behind a "great Airbnb potential" claim. Everything below explains exactly how the math works, so you can trust (and double-check) every figure on the dashboard.

How the Calculation Works

The calculator runs your inputs through four steps: gross revenue, fixed costs, variable costs, and the resulting net cash flow. Each step mirrors how a property manager would build a monthly P&L.

Gross Monthly Revenue = (ADR × 30 × Occupancy%) + (Cleaning Fee × Bookings)

Fixed Costs = Mortgage + Taxes + Insurance + HOA + Utilities

Variable Costs = (Cleaner Cost × Bookings) + (Revenue × Platform Fee%) + (Revenue × Maintenance%)

Net Monthly Cash Flow = Gross Revenue − Fixed Costs − Variable Costs

Cash-on-Cash Return = (Net Cash Flow × 12) ÷ (Purchase Price × 25%)

Cash-on-cash return assumes a standard 25% down payment as your total cash invested. If your actual down payment differs, scale the result proportionally. A 20% down payment produces a proportionally higher return, and a 30% down payment a proportionally lower one.

Worked Example

Using the calculator's default numbers (a $350,000 property, $185 average daily rate, 60% occupancy, and 8 bookings a month):

  • Gross monthly revenue: ($185 × 30 × 0.60) + ($90 × 8) = $3,330 + $720 = $4,050
  • Fixed costs: $1,450 + $320 + $150 + $0 + $180 = $2,100 (using typical defaults)
  • Variable costs: cleaning + 3% platform fee + 5% maintenance buffer on $4,050 revenue
  • Net monthly cash flow lands in the low hundreds, enough to be "healthy" but worth stress-testing against a slower month

This is exactly why the Profit Health Meter matters more than any single number: a property can be cash-flow positive on paper and still be fragile if occupancy dips 10 points below your projection.

Strengths of This Model

  • Separates fixed vs. variable costs, so you can see which levers actually move your margin
  • Builds in platform fees and a maintenance reserve, two costs new hosts consistently underestimate
  • Every assumption is editable, not hardcoded

Limitations to Know

  • Uses a flat monthly occupancy rate, so it won't capture seasonality (summer spikes, winter lulls)
  • Assumes a fixed 25% down payment for cash-on-cash return unless you adjust manually
  • Doesn't model furnishing/setup costs, vacancy between the purchase and first booking, or local STR permit fees

Who This Is For, and When Not to Use It

Use this calculator when you're evaluating a specific short-term rental listing pre-purchase, comparing two or more properties, or checking whether your current pricing still clears a healthy margin after a cost increase (insurance, HOA, taxes).

Don't rely on it alone if your market has strong seasonality. Model your slowest quarter separately using the same tool with a lower occupancy input. It's also not a substitute for a local STR regulation check; some cities cap permits, require owner-occupancy, or ban short-term rentals in certain zones entirely.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

  • 1Using your best month's ADR as the year-round average instead of a realistic blended rate
  • 2Forgetting the maintenance buffer. Appliances, HVAC, and furniture wear faster with guest turnover than owner-occupied use
  • 3Leaving platform fees at the default 3% without checking your actual host tier and payout structure

Frequently Asked Questions

What counts as a "healthy" cash-on-cash return for a short-term rental?

Most short-term rental investors target 8–12% cash-on-cash return, higher than the 4–7% often accepted for long-term rentals, since STRs carry more operational risk and demand more active management. Below 8% you're taking on Airbnb-level effort for long-term-rental-level returns.

Why does the calculator use a flat occupancy rate instead of seasonal data?

To keep the model simple and market-agnostic. For a more accurate picture in seasonal markets, run the calculation twice, once with your peak-season occupancy and once with your off-season occupancy, and average the two monthly cash flow results rather than relying on a single blended guess.

Does this include Airbnb's guest service fee?

No, the guest service fee is paid by the guest on top of your listed price and doesn't affect your revenue. The "Platform Fee" input here represents the host-side service fee (typically around 3% under Airbnb's standard host-only fee structure), which is deducted from your payout.

How is this different from the BRRRR or long-term Cash Flow calculators?

This tool models nightly-rate, high-turnover income (ADR × occupancy × bookings), which behaves very differently from a fixed monthly lease. If you're comparing a property as both a long-term rental and a short-term rental, run it through both this calculator and the Cash Flow Estimator to see which strategy actually performs better on the same numbers.